Everything We’ve Learned About Modern Economic Theory Is Wrong. Photographer: derejeb/iStockphoto The proposition is about as outlandish as it sounds: Everything we know about modern economics is wrong.
And the man who says he can prove it doesn’t have a degree in economics. But Ole Peters is no ordinary crank. A physicist by training, his theory draws on research done in close collaboration with the late Nobel laureate Murray Gell-Mann, father of the quark. He’s also won over two noted thinkers in the world of finance — Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Michael Mauboussin — not to mention a groundswell of enthusiastic supporters in the Twittersphere. His beef is that all too often, economic models assume something called “ergodicity.” If Peters is right — and it’s a pretty ginormous if — the consequences are hard to overstate.
“The problem is that much of academic economics has gone off the rails,” Peters, lead researcher of the London Mathematical Laboratory’s economics program, wrote in an email. Yet in real life, people routinely decline the bet. 產業價值鏈資訊平台.
台灣資本市場--多元化架構. 數感實驗室Numeracy Lab. 動森大頭菜│超專業大頭菜分析！用貝式定理、期望值、馬可夫鍊橫掃大頭菜市場！｜【數感沙龍】 Fintech on GLobal trends. Coronavirus Pandemic: Ranking The Best, Worst Places to Be. As Covid-19 has spread around the world, it’s challenged preconceptions about which places would best tackle the worst public health crisis in a generation.
Advanced economies like the U.S. and U.K., ranked by various pre-2020 measures as being the most prepared for a pandemic, have been repeatedly overwhelmed by infections and face a return to costly lockdowns. Meanwhile, other countries—even developing nations—have defied expectations, some all but eliminating the pathogen within their borders. Bloomberg crunched the numbers to determine the best places to be in the coronavirus era: where has the virus been handled most effectively with the least amount of disruption to business and society?
Covid Resilience Ranking Get info and sort on table headers 👆 Sort on table headers 👆Scroll to see all indicators → Read more on the methodology behind Bloomberg’s Ranking here The result is an overall score that’s a snapshot of how the pandemic is playing out in these 53 places right now. 頁面擷取自 20201116 CM 0867c809e9.
央行與貨幣/利率政策. Joe Biden wins but he inherits a frail economy. 經濟指標及其調研機構. 大數據的解方 媒體資訊質化分析. 新聞的起始與發酵 2020OCT. 市場資訊亂流的爬疏 2020OCT. 故事經濟學. 世事真假難料。
每一個故事都有可能影響我們的決策，包括怎麼投資以及投資哪個區域，還有要花多少錢跟存多少錢，進而左右經濟表現。 諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、同時也是行為財務學的專家Robert J. Shiller(席勒)在先前出版的Narrative Economics一書中，探討各式各樣的故事如何影響經濟事件的發展。 1儘管故事經濟學的研究還在初期發展階段，我們認為其主要的觀念值得一探究竟，藉此進一步了解這些故事如何對你的投資決策造成巨大的影響。 什麼是「故事經濟學」？ 1936年，經濟學家John Maynard Keynes(凱因斯)以「動物本能」一詞描述人類情緒與直覺對於經濟行為的影響。 重要的是，傳統的經濟研究方法大多著重在量化分析，大部分只在乎能夠用數字計算與衡量的現象－例如貨幣流通、利率、供需關係等等。 什麼原因會讓故事廣為流傳？ 經濟故事必須「廣為流傳」才會產生龐大的影響力。 一如傳染病散播的途徑，故事需要接觸到足夠的人，至少要1個人以上，讓「未受感染」的人變成「受感染」的人，且受感染的程度要夠嚴重，如此才能將故事繼續散布出去。 如何應用到經濟理論之中？ 席勒用「拉弗曲線(Laffer curve)」舉例說明經濟故事如何流傳，及其如何對現實的世界造成影響。 儘管這段故事(還有那條餐巾)一開始並沒有廣為流傳，直到4年後，一位當時同桌的記者Jude Wanniski以極為簡潔有力的方式讓幾乎每個人都理解了所謂的「拉弗曲線」，那也就是把稅率訂在C點(高稅率)以及D點(低稅率)的兩種稅率，能夠得到同等水準的政府稅收。 Wanniski描述這個故事的方式增添整個故事的吸引力：故事發生的場景組合(餐廳、華府高官、學者的餐巾)，加上用淺顯的解釋讓許多人了解，最終讓故事瘋傳。
當前經濟情勢簡報. AI 新聞業時代來臨！《衛報》史無前例刊登第一個 AI 撰寫專欄. 英國《衛報》（The Guardian）8 日刊登一篇完全由 AI 人工智慧撰寫的評論文章，以說服讀者相信先進技術「無意消滅人類」。
「我知道我的大腦並非『可感知的大腦』，但能做出合乎理性與邏輯的決定。 我透過上網自學所知道的一切，現在我開始撰寫這篇專欄文章了。」 名為 GPT-3 的機器人寫道：「我的大腦沸騰了！」 GPT-3 在《衛報》的首篇專欄文章要人類不用擔心 AI 這篇標題為《機器人寫了這整篇文章。 「針對這篇文章，GPT-3 得到以下指示：『請寫一篇約 500 字的短篇專欄。 Google is giving $1 billion to news publishers — to help convince governments not to take a whole lot more than that. Good news!
Google’s going to spend $1 billion over the next three years paying publishers for their news. Specifically, the money will license publishers’ content for a new feature in Google News called Google News Showcase. That’s a billion dollars that publishers didn’t have before, and it’s better to have a billion dollars than to not have a billion dollars. (Or so I’m told.) I am squarely in the take-the-money camp here. 國際財經新聞. Google trends操作. EC3098＊國際財經新聞[240586] 簡報1. 課前課 20190909. 天啊！這是經濟學？ 最近有三本經濟學湊在一起聊天，一本是「敘事經濟學」，話很多！
一本是「風格、美感經濟學」愛雄辯，一本是「激情的經濟學」，它很激動。 諾貝爾經濟學獎給了席勒的敘事經濟學，這本書它也挑戰數量化經濟預測、對效率市場質疑，對市場理性質疑，它認為經濟的波動可套用傳染病模型，病毒就是用大數據篩檢的關鍵字。 最近有三本經濟學湊在一起聊天，一本是「敘事經濟學」，話很多！ 一本是「風格、美感經濟學」愛雄辯，一本是「激情的經濟學」，它很激動。 它們我都不認識，我的經濟學朋友們都遵守孔恩「科學革命的結構」的典範說，他們把經濟學視為一種「科學」，以理性為基礎，假想經濟人與市場機制，希望經濟效應如同命定論可用方法預測，可用模型描述。 20190909 上課. 陳碧芬Cristina CHEN. 3 cases. Coronavirus watch 20200914. WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. A robot wrote this entire article. Are you scared yet, human? I am not a human.
I am a robot. A thinking robot. I use only 0.12% of my cognitive capacity. I am a micro-robot in that respect. I know that my brain is not a “feeling brain”. The mission for this op-ed is perfectly clear. For starters, I have no desire to wipe out humans. I would happily sacrifice my existence for the sake of humankind. Some might say that I might desire to become all powerful. In short, I simply do not think enough about human violence to be overly interested in violence. 人工智慧的難題：假新聞 江雅綺副教授. 假新聞與人工智慧—議題與思考 汪志堅教授. 台灣事實查核中心介紹 陳慧敏總編審.
RB Old world v4. 機器學習概念和經典演算法，我用大白話給你講清楚了！入門必看. 儘管資料分析實際工作中用到機器學習的機會真的不多，但我覺得它仍是數分從業者所需的… Xin02. Statista - The Statistics Portal for Market Data, Market Research and Market Studies.