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Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions

Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions

Family tree of the Greek gods Key: The essential Olympians' names are given in bold font. See also List of Greek mythological figures Notes External links Media related to Family trees of Greek mythology at Wikimedia Commons Dreams of Autarky by Robin Hanson Sept 2001, First version Sept 1999 Genie nanotech, space colonies, Turing-test A.I., a local singularity, crypto credentials, and private law are all dreams of a future where some parts of the world economy and society have an unusually low level of dependence on the rest of the world. But it is the worldwide division of labor that has made us humans rich, and I suspect we won't let it go for a long time to come. Introduction Many of us expect humanity to encounter enormous changes in the next century, changes that we would do well to consider seriously now. But the fact is that many, and probably most, people who are ``smart" and ``knowledgeable" by standard objective measures disagree with this assessment. How can we come to terms with this disagreement? One favorite response to this predicament is to invoke common biases in human reasoning. Since we are human, we must acknowledge that we too suffer from any common human biases. Expecting Autarky Space Colonies Soon

Truth Market Rap Genius | Discover the Meaning of Rap Lyrics Evolution's Arrow Our role in the future evolution of life John Stewart Member of the Evolution, Complexity and Cognition Research Group, The Free University of , John.Stewart@evolutionarymanifesto.com 6 June 2008 A completely new phase in the evolution of life on Earth has begun. In this new phase evolution will be driven intentionally, by humanity. At present humanity is lost. But this difficult period is coming to an end. At the heart of the evolutionary worldview is the fact that evolution has a trajectory—it heads in a particular direction. It is as if evolution is a developmental process. Across the planet at the beginning of the twenty first century, individuals are beginning to realize the importance of the transition to intentional evolution. This role requires them to promote the new evolutionary worldview that will drive the transition. Evolutionary activists use the trajectory of evolution to identify what they need to do to advance evolution.

confab.yahoo "prediction markets: tapping the wisdom of cro The 10 coolest video game Easter eggs Once a year, millions of kids transform into amateur detectives sleuthing for hidden treasures. But all year round, millions of gamers do the exact same thing in their favorite video games. Average Faces From Around The World Added on Feb 08, 2011 / Category : StrangeNews / 228 Comments Finding the average face of people across the world was a tough job but someone had to do it. This guy basically takes a thousands and thousands images of everyday people from any city and the software makes an 'average' of the people, giving one final portrait. Take a look at this amazing project called "World of Facial Averages" If you like this article, Share it with the world:

14 Wild Ideas Many Worlds , Medicine Useless , A.I. via Common Sense , Cryonics , Uploads , I'm in Sim , Fast Growth , Growth Stops , Colonize Galaxy , No Aliens , Aliens Came & Left , Private Law , Futarchy , No One Honest . by Robin Hanson , Oct. 18, 2001 A wild idea is one that many people think is obviously quite unlikely. I'd say at least a third of these wild ideas are likely true. Many times each day, your mind permanently splits into different versions that live in different worlds.

Prediction Markets Blog by Consensus Point » Consensus Point Fea Stories of others’ successes — and failures — can educate and inspire. And when they come from some of the top CEOs in the city, well, you really want to lean in and listen. Several hundred women did just that Thursday night as Evolve Women hosted a panel of executives who shared their “Lean In” stories on “Achieving Success: Inside and Outside the Corporate Walls.” Founded by former health care executive Connie McGee and Consensus Point CEO Linda Rebrovick, Evolve Women offers programs and resources to aid the development of women in the workplace. Thursday’s panel featured Claire Tucker, CEO of CapStar Bank, Stella Parton, singer-songwriter and founder of Red Tent women’s conference, Laura Hollingsworth, president of tnMedia and publisher of The Tennessean, Liza Graves, co-founder of StyleBlueprint, and Rebrovick. Here are some words of wisdom curated from the two-hour event. • Leaders do the grunt work, Graves said. “Stop being a boss, and start being a coach.” • Believe, Parton said.

Math Humor Top 10 Excuses for Not Turning in Math Homework 10. It's Isaac Newton's birthday. 9. I couldn't decide whether i is the square root of -1 or i are the square root of -1. 8. I accidently divided by 0 and my paper burst into flames. 7. It's stuck inside a Klein bottle. 6. Top Ten Things That Math and Sex Have in Common 10. Definitions of Terms Commonly Used in Math CLEARLY: I don't want to write down all the in-between steps. TRIVIAL: If I have to show you how to do this, you're in the wrong class. OBVIOUSLY: I hope you weren't sleeping when we discussed this earlier, because I refuse to repeat it. RECALL: I shouldn't have to tell you this, but for those of you who erase your memory tapes after every test, here it is again. WITHOUT LOSS OF GENERALITY: I'm not about to do all the possible cases, so I'll do one and let you figure out the rest. ONE MAY SHOW: One did, his name was Gauss. IT IS WELL KNOWN: See "Mathematische Zeitschrift'', vol XXXVI, 1892. FINALLY: Only ten more steps to go... 10. 10.

Prediction Markets for Promoting the Progress of Science and the Copyrights and patents promote only superficial progress in the sciences and useful arts. Copyright law primarily encourages entertaining works, whereas patent law mainly inspires marginal improvements in mature technologies. Neither form of intellectual property does much to encourage basic research and development. Essential progress suffers. Prediction markets offer another way to promote the sciences and useful arts. In general, prediction markets support transactions in claims about unresolved questions of fact. Because it would reward accurate answers to factual questions, a SPEx would encourage essential discoveries about the sciences and useful arts. This article measures copyright and patent law against the Constitution's call for promotion of the Progress of science and useful Arts, to find those traditional forms of intellectual property lacking.

25+ Useful Linux and Unix Cheat sheets Faster programming gives you more time for small business website design and other projects. This is my first post on Cheat sheets. Actually Cheat sheet is a concise set of notes used for quick reference. Cheat sheets will contain most of the shortcuts needed to program faster. And it is meant for newbie users who can’t remember the shortcuts or commands. In this post , I have collected almost 27 Cheat sheets available for Linux users. You may think that one cheat sheet is just enough for me , so why should I need to look at so many cheat sheets. Click on any of the 687 commands below to get a description and list of available options. Tired of using your mouse so much? I hope that these cheat sheets will definitely help you to remember some difficult commands for sure.

The Bottom-up Approach to Legal Prediction Markets As hoped, the gambling crackdown is beginning to energize efforts that will eventually lead to legal prediction markets in the United States. As expected, some call for CFTC regulation, while others would prefer an exemption of the kind currently protecting horse-racing and fantasy sports, while libertarians tend to favor legal and regulated internet gambling in general. The most flexible outcomes are also the most expensive ones, at least if one discounts the option of openly starting a real-money exchange and then relying on a combination of the skill/chance distinction and one's good intentions to receive a favorable ruling. The CFTC option would be the most restrictive, but the least expensive since it might not require any lobbying. Proponents of the other two options are left to wonder where the money behind a lobby will come from. Tom W. By my own reading of the appropriate laws, there are some unfortunate caveats: d: The dominant factor test may not actually apply.

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