People who think their opinions are superior to others are most prone to overestimating their relevant knowledge and ignoring chances to learn more By guest blogger Tom Stafford We all know someone who is convinced their opinion is better than everyone else’s on a topic – perhaps, even, that it is the only correct opinion to have. Maybe, on some topics, you are that person. The researchers distinguish “belief superiority” from “belief confidence” (thinking your opinion is correct). The pair set out to find people who felt their beliefs on a variety of controversial political issues (things like terrorism and civil liberties, or wealth redistribution) were superior, and to check – using multiple choice quizzes – how well they were informed on the topics about which they held these superiority beliefs. Across five studies Hall and Raimi found that those people with the highest belief superiority also tended to have the largest gap between their perceived and actual knowledge – the belief superior consistently suffered from the illusion that they were better informed than they were. Overall the research presents a mixed picture.
Banker's wife: 'I knew what I was getting into' | Joris Luyendijk People in finance work incredibly long hours. What's it like being married to such a person? In an earlier post here, a banker's ex-girlfriend spoke of her failed attempts to make her relationship work. Her story made you wonder how other partners of bankers feel. She agreed to sit for an interview, after warning: "I have no extravagant stories to share". "I think it helps that I know what it's like for him. "The world of finance is a way of life. "When the last crisis hit, at some point almost all our foreign friends had left London. "I knew what I was getting into. "You're asking, I sacrificed my career to come live with him, now what is he sacrificing for me? "On weekdays I do not include my husband in any of my after-office plans. "It strikes me sometimes what a different life other people lead. "When we book a holiday it does bother me a little because we can never be sure whether we are actually going until the very last moment. "Besides, it used to be much worse.
Iran Snap Analysis: Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind The second round of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) on the nuclear programme are now receding. The third, to be held in Moscow, are more than three weeks away. So it is now time for the Islamic Republic to put out stories about its economic achievements and success in repelling the aggressive sanctions of the "West". Press TV offers an example: Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano says Tokyo is considering "realistic" options to ensure the country's imports of Iranian crude are not disrupted. Here is what Press TV leaves out --- the already-significant impact of the sanctions on Japanese purchases of Tehran's oil, with the possiblity of more constriction --- from the original report by Platts News Service: But Press TV is not alone in its insistence that All Is Well. If they do, then they may be in for an awakening as they go to Moscow on 18-19 June. Still, there are ripples that could change the scenario.
Are Financial Blogs Trustworthy? The talking heads say that financial blogs aren’t trustworthy. But the whole debate about blogs versus mainstream media is nonsense. In fact, many of the world’s top PhD economics professors and financial advisors have their own blogs. For example (in no particular order): Nouriel Roubini Paul KrugmanNassim Nicholas TalebSimon JohnsonFrank Shostak Willem BuiterTyler CohenGreg MankiwRichard BaldwinMark ThomaMichael PettisBrad DeLongJames Hamilton and Menzie ChinnMichel ChossudovskyMichael HudsonYves SmithRolfe WinklerSteve Keen And the conclusions of economists who don’t have their own blogs are collected by other bloggers and on YouTube videos. And you’ve got blogs like Zero Hedge that break stories about Goldman and high-frequency trading months before the mainstream media. So what is “news”? Indeed, as of February, only 5% of the pundits discussing various government bailout plans on cable news shows are real economists. Of course, many financial blogs are not very good. Print this post
Petit recueil de 18 moisissures argumentatives pour concours de mauvaise foi Petit recueil de non plus 18, mais 20 moisissures argumentatives à utiliser sans modération lors des concours de mauvaise foi. Ont été intégrés les plurium et l’argument de l’exotisme. Nous avons découpé ces moisissures argumentatives en trois grandes catégories : les erreurs logiques, les attaques, et les travestissements. Télécharger en pdf la mise en page magnifique du graphiste Francois-b. 1. Méthode : prendre un échantillon trop petit et en tirer une conclusion générale. Exemples : Mon voisin est un imbécile moustachu, donc tous les moustachus sont des imbéciles.Les Chinois sont vachement sympas. Exemples aggravés (menant au racisme ordinaire) : Le Chinois est vachement sympa. 2. Méthode : raisonner à rebours, vers une cause possible parmi d’autres, vers un scénario préconçu ou vers la position que l’on souhaite prouver. Exemples : C’est fou,le melon est déjà prédécoupé pour être mangé en famille .Le monde est trop bien foutu, c’est une preuve de l’existence d’une volonté divine. 3. 4. 5.
Bruce Berkowitz: The megamind of Miami He may be the most driven investor on earth. And now the founder of the $17 billion Fairholme Fund is making the boldest bet of his career. Berkowitz in his home office in Coral Gables, Fla., with his beloved poodle, Jazz. Bruce Berkowitz is starting to sweat. As he charges through the darkness in shorts, running shoes, and a black University of Miami zip-up hoodie, Berkowitz bounces from topic to topic in his typical scattershot way. Finally, on the fourth or fifth pass down his block, Berkowitz, 52, gets around to the biggest and most public wager of his life: his $5 billion bet on the resurgence of Wall Street. Berkowitz may not be a household name to most investors, but he should be. The fund's outstanding returns -- along with Berkowitz's being crowned U.S. stock manager of the decade this year by investment research firm Morningstar -- have attracted a flood of new money to Fairholme. Berkowitz welcomes the influx of money. Can Berkowitz continue to beat the odds?
An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces By Joe Romm on September 28, 2011 at 4:49 pm "An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces" Humanity’s Choice (via M.I.T.): Inaction (“No Policy”) eliminates most of the uncertainty about whether or not future warming will be catastrophic. Aggressive emissions reductions dramatically improves humanity’s chances. In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. Staggeringly high temperature rise, especially over land — some 10°F over much of the United StatesPermanent Dust Bowl conditions over the U.S. Remember, these will all be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade. By virtue of their success in promoting doubt and inaction, the climate science deniers and disinformers have, tragically and ironically, turned the worst-case scenario into business as usual. As Dr.
FIFA 13 Tips & Tricks | FIFPlay FIFA 13 Dribbling Tips Football journalist and FIFA fan Darren Cross looks at five great dribbling moves that will get you past your marker in FIFA 13. At some stage in a game of FIFA you’re going to need to dribble past an opponent. Whether you prefer a slow passing game, fast counter-attacks or any other style of play, there will be a point when you’ll have to beat a player with a dribble to progress with the attack. With that in mind, in this week’s Backpage we’re going to look at five dribbling techniques I use regularly when I need to get past a defender, starting with… Face-Up Dribble Delay The face-up dribble function gives you the freedom and control to move quickly and precisely with the ball at your feet, which makes it difficult for the defending player to predict what you will do next. Burst Away This is a great move for beating a defender when the play has already slowed down and you’re standing over the ball.
50 Common Cognitive Distortions 3. Negative predictions. Overestimating the likelihood that an action will have a negative outcome. 4. Underestimating your ability cope with negative events. 5. Thinking of unpleasant events as catastrophes. 6. For example, during social interactions, paying attention to someone yawning but not paying the same degree of attention to other cues that suggest they are interested in what you’re saying (such as them leaning in). 7. Remembering negatives from a social situation and not remembering positives. 8. Believing an absence of a smiley-face in an email means someone is mad at you. 9. The belief that achieving unrelentingly high standards is necessary to avoid a catastrophe. 10. Believing the same rules that apply to others should not apply to you. 11. For example, I’ve made progress toward my goal and therefore it’s ok if I act in a way that is inconsistent with it. 12. For example, believing that poor people must deserve to be poor. 13. 14. It’s not. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23.
Why Some of the Strongest Firms Disappointed Investors Pat Dorsey: Hi, I'm Pat Dorsey, director of equity research at Morningstar. With all of the focus we give to economic moats or a competitive advantage at Morningstar, I think sometimes investors may lose sight of the fact that we also pay very close attention to the price we pay for the stocks that we recommend, because, of course, an expensive wide-moat stock is going to deliver you a very bad prospective return relative to a cheap no-moat stock. And I think, unfortunately, this has colored the experience of a lot of people over the past decade, when perhaps they owned a portfolio of blue chips in say 2000 at very high valuations, and while those companies may have retained their competitive advantages and grown earnings and done very well operationally over the past decade, well, frankly, the shares have either gone down or gone nowhere as the valuation has compressed. So, let's look at Cisco, which of course, was the poster child for the Internet back in the dot-com era.
May Copyright: GraphicObsession Rise in oil prices has been magnified by a fall in the value of the euro against the dollar 24 May 2012 Europe is on track to spend over USD500 billion on oil imports this year, which is well in excess of the Greek government’s USD370 billion debt, the IEA’s Executive Director said on 23 May in Paris. Speaking at a debate on the outlook of the global economy organised by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Maria Van der Hoeven stressed that although there has been a recent slide in oil prices, they remain at “worryingly high levels.” “Prices at these levels are forcing households to either cut back on spending on other items or to increase their debt; they are also undermining the profitability of companies that are unable to pass on fully higher input costs,” she said. From 2000 to 2010 the average amount spent on oil imports in Europe was USD182 billion a year. Ms. Ms.
The Spirit Level, Richard Wilkinson & Kate Pickett Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett's The Spirit Level: Why Equality is Better for Everyone is the most influential and talked-about book on society in the last decade - now updated with a new chapter on the controversy the book has ignited. Why do we mistrust people more in the UK than in Japan? Why do Americans have higher rates of teenage pregnancy than the French? What makes the Swedish thinner than the Australians? Perché gli stupidi si credono intelligenti? – RicPuglisi Vi è mai capitato di incontrare dei perfetti idioti che si credono dei portenti di intelligenza? Sicuramente sì. Potrebbe esservi anche capitato di essere sicuri di avere capito tutto su un certo tema, ma -con il senno di poi- realizzare di esservi illusi di capire, quando in realtà avevate capito poco o niente. Si tratta di un tema molto generale: noi esseri umani siamo capaci di essere obiettivi su noi stessi e sulla nostra intelligenza? In particolare, quanto più qualcuno è incompetente su un certo tema o in una certa attività, tanto più crede di essere più bravo di quel che è. L’effetto per cui se sei stupido e/o scarso su un certo tema non sai neanche di esserlo si chiama “effetto Dunning/Kruger”, dal nome dei due psicologi che ne hanno dimostrato la presenza attraverso una serie di esperimenti. Si tratta in buona sostanza di una “stupidità al quadrato”, in quanto sei stupido e lo sei talmente tanto da non capire di esserlo. La prova di ciò? Per chi vuole saperne di più: Mi piace: