SOPHISTICATED FINANCE - Decision Making and the Smart Man Back in March I posted on the role of assumptions in developing the business and financial model. The important point was that the assumptions represent the key risks in the business model. Yesterday I read a good post on recruiting in the Private Equity and Venture Capital Recruitment blog. In the post the author suggested that one should trust their intuition and check their assumptions. The key point was that your intuition is frequently a better indicator than a rigid checklist approach. My definition of intuition is " facts that you cannot articulate". For most intuitions the facts can be discovered, if you work at it--perhaps with another personThe assumptions in the intuition represent the risks in the decision or conclusion I do not use intuition much and never have, but I have great respect for intuitive people. Another technique I always use is the "smart man" hypothesis. Note: I learned about the smart man hypothesis back in the early 1980s.
The looming deleveraging challenge - McKinsey Quarterly - Econom The specter of deleveraging has been haunting the global economy since the credit crunch reached crisis proportions in 2008. The fear: an unwinding of unsustainable debt burdens will drag down growth rates for years to come. So far, reality has been more benign, with economic growth recovering sooner than expected in some countries, even though the financial sector is still cleaning up its balance sheets and consumer demand remains weak. Podcast What policy makers and executives need to know about deleveraging Author Charles Roxburgh discusses how historic lessons can help government and business leaders guide the economy through the looming process of debt reduction. New research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), though, suggests that the deleveraging process may just be getting under way and is likely to exert a significant drag on GDP growth. Where deleveraging is likely today Debt grew rapidly after 2000 in most mature economies. What history teaches about deleveraging Exhibit 3
Silent Watching Meditation If you're new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting! Listening to silence is a simple meditation exercise Silence resides in the gap between your thoughts, in the moments before and after sounds and also beneath sounds if you can hear constant noise. Few noises are permanent; most have gaps, however brief. If you focus on your breath passing in and out of your lungs your thoughts begin to slow down and occasionally you will find you stop thinking. At first, this feels weird! The quiet place within is always there although it can take practice to become aware of it. Here are some examples of how to enjoy a silent watching meditation: Try sitting with a plant or flower and listen to it grow! Watch light fade and observe shadows. Light a candle or incense stick and silently watch the smoke swirl. Silently observe animals or pets, the way they move, often slowly, often silently – extremely alert, present in the moment. Listening to silence can feel weird at first.
Rules Management and Automation With Common Knowledge - Home Cognitive Edge Just before Christmas I started off this thread by summarising the reasons that people have given me over the years in respect of the need to share knowledge across silos within organisations, both in Industry and Government. I also identified two common mistakes in finding solutions. These were (i) assuming that the problem was one of information sharing and (ii) attempting to define and prescribe ideal behaviour. The latter point linked to the all to common question: How do I create a knowledge sharing culture? Unfortunately it's the wrong question; cultures evolve over time, there is no divine watchmaker who can design or create a culture. In this second part I want to focus on four core guiding principles that will underlie any successful approach to the problem, and will then move on, in at least one possibly more, posts to summarise some methods and techniques that can be used. Social Obligation Individual Context We only know what we know when we need to know it. Natural Limits
Decision theory Normative and descriptive decision theory[edit] Since people usually do not behave in ways consistent with axiomatic rules, often their own, leading to violations of optimality, there is a related area of study, called a positive or descriptive discipline, attempting to describe what people will actually do. Since the normative, optimal decision often creates hypotheses for testing against actual behaviour, the two fields are closely linked. Furthermore it is possible to relax the assumptions of perfect information, rationality and so forth in various ways, and produce a series of different prescriptions or predictions about behaviour, allowing for further tests of the kind of decision-making that occurs in practice. In recent decades, there has been increasing interest in what is sometimes called 'behavioral decision theory' and this has contributed to a re-evaluation of what rational decision-making requires.[1] What kinds of decisions need a theory? Choice under uncertainty[edit]
Essential Priorities for Optimizing the Business Value of Custom February 01, 2013 NewVoiceMedia recently announced it has raised $20 million of investment funds to aid its expansion overseas, including offices in North America. The company was founded in the UK in 2000 and originally offered telephony and call management in the cloud. It now has a close partnership with Salesforce.com, which has allowed it to expand into a multichannel contact center in the cloud. During the last 12 years it has achieved considerable success, both financially and in acquiring prestigious clients, mostly in the UK. Old instincts die hard, and even though the company’s services and support are accessible anywhere, potential customers still like to see support available in their country. My research into the contact center in the cloud shows the timing probably couldn’t be better. My research shows that one of the biggest concerns of organizations adopting contact center in the cloud is performance. Regards, Richard J. VP & Research Director
An Interview With Yourself From time to time, it’s good to have a conversation with yourself—maybe even an interview. This is how you do it. First, sit yourself down wherever you like to sit. Get coffee or your drink of choice. Turn off the distractions and take it seriously. Then you open the conversation like this: Dear self, you are x years old. As you look back on your life, what are you most proud of, what do you regret, and how do you feel about each of those things? What’s next, self? Of course, when you interview yourself, you can customize the interview however you see fit. Here’s wishing you all a great Monday. Are you satisfied with your answers? Image: DH
The 3e Factor Career Freedom: Around the World in 80 Trades Career Freedom: Around the World in 80 Trades Although this blog maybe about learning the strategies and tactics of self-made billionaires on the surface, at rock bottom it's about freedom. With that in mind, I'd like to share with you a great tale of a man who found freedom for a year. Suppose for a moment that time travel was possible and you found yourself 1000 years back in time somewhere along the old Silk Road with a limited grubstake of money. The series, Around the World in 80 Trades, is about a man who places himself in such a predicament in order to test his mettle. Each of the four episodes is approximately 50 minutes long. I include this series here for another important reason.
Social Systems & Knowledge Networks Some people are superb at creating visual tools to illustrate complex subjects. John Maloney is one of those gifted people who can synthesize information into a picture which helps people understand the emerging, and existing, knowledge that rest within an organizations “network” of people and processes. More importantly the illustration above provides a “systemic view” of how and where social technology integrates into the capabilities infrastructure of an organization. A “Platform of Knowledge” is representative of what every organization has but most cannot “see or actualize” the knowledge because they lack the understanding to recognize that knowledge is an asset. Knowledge in Your Social System Social systems sciences is a loose term for engineered environments which, if successful, attract users to participate. There are multiple methods of measuring participation within a social system. All social systems have commonalities. What Do Knowledge Assets Look Like?
120 Ways to Boost Your Brain Power Here are 120 things you can do starting today to help you think faster, improve memory, comprehend information better and unleash your brain’s full potential. Solve puzzles and brainteasers.Cultivate ambidexterity. Use your non-dominant hand to brush your teeth, comb your hair or use the mouse. Write with both hands simultaneously. Readers’ Contributions Dance! Contribute your own tip! There are many, many ways to keep our brains sharp.