Outline of futures studies The following outline is presented as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies – study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures, and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. It seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. What is futures studies?[edit] Futures studies can be described as all of the following: a branch of science[citation needed] – a branch of social science –a parallel discipline to history – the field of history concerns the discovery, collection, organization, and presentation of information about past events. "In contrast to many future-oriented organizations that think of "the future" in a singular way as determined by present trends, WFSF [and the futures field in general] encourages and promotes 'plural futures' through exploration of alternative and preferred futures General futures studies concepts[edit] Futures studies organizations[edit] Research centers[edit] Academic programs[edit]
cognitive biases in futurist thinking Hedgehog and fox finger puppetsby Linda Brown (Etsy shop owner) “No serious futurist deals in predictions”. These are the famous words of Alvin Toffler in his seminal book Future Shock from 1971. The availability bias explains that people have the idea that whatever is recalled easily must be very common. The anchoring bias is also what makes it difficult not to be influenced too much by current affairs. The confirmation bias states that people tend to confirm their beliefs. We also observe here the confidence bias, which works on top of the confirmation bias. The narrative fallacy points at the basis human tendency of telling stories. Both Taleb and Garner build on the work of Philip Tetlock, who distinguished two types of predictors: the hedgehog and the fox. Futurists needs these introspective moments. Twitter: @FreijavanDuijne Futuring is my passion.
Home - The Venus Project Futurologists links Ignore this box please. Add to Browser Install Firefox add-on More ways to add DDG Feedback Report Bad Results Other Help / Feedback Add to Browser Give feedback Try this search on : Wikipedia The Free Dictionary The Independent Slate The Guardian Reddit Merriam-Webster Keyboard shortcuts h, / search box j, ↓ next result k, ↑ prev result l, o, Enter go More... Ctrl+Enter bg ', v new tab d domain search t Top ! Futurist Futurists (not in the sense of futurism) or futurologists are scientists and social scientists whose speciality is to attempt to systematically predict the future, whether that of human society in particular or of life on earth in general. More at Wikipedia Futurologists Association of Professional Futurists More related topics Futurism World Futures Studies Federation Futures studies Prediction Futurology This page requires Javascript. Futurologists - definition of Futurologists by the Free ... fu·tur·ol·o·gy (fy ch-r l-j) n. futurology. How Is America Going To End? Futurizon
Cognitive Biases Tracking the Future Why do we assume the future will be short? – John Schellenberg In Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle (1987), Stephen Jay Gould tells the story of one John Playfair, who in 1788 accompanied the great British geologist James Hutton to see an ‘unconformity’ at Siccar Point in Scotland. With the help of this geological visual – an ancient erosion surface dividing two layers of rock, one gently sloping, the other vertically tilted – Hutton explained to Playfair that the Earth is a machine ceaselessly repeating a cycle of erosion, deposition, and uplift. Playfair later wrote: ‘The impression made will not easily be forgotten... Revolutions still more remote appeared in the distance of this extraordinary perspective. Giddy. Popular now Still living with your parents? Why solitary confinement degrades us all Do the phases of the moon affect human behaviour? By now most of us have absorbed and integrated quite a large number of facts about deep time. You’ll suspect it to be not much. Why has recognising the deep future been so difficult for humanity? 10 February 2014
Futuring: The Exploration of the Future Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish. WFS. 2004. 313 pages. Paperback. This comprehensive guide to the study of the future will give you a detailed look at the techniques futurists use, what we can know about the future and what we can't, and the role that forward-looking people can play in creating a better tomorrow. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future $19.95, Members $17.95 Order Futuring for the Amazon Kindle Building the Future: A Workbook to Accompany Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Jill Loukides and Lawrie Gardner Anne Arundel Community College. Futurist educators Loukides and Gardner have developed this thought-inspiring workbook to guide students through the key lessons of Edward Cornish's text, Futuring. Building the Future $17.50, Members $15.95 Order Free Resources from Futuring: The Exploration of the Future Dictionary of Futurist Terms Brief Descriptions Futurist Methods Editorial Reviews "My Picks of the Month. ... Arabic Korean Mongolian
Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty. First popularized by Shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategy—especially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. It would probably be more widely used if it hadn’t been such a disappointment to many executives. In fact, 40 percent of those we surveyed in 2013 described it as having little effectiveness. Podcast Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning DownloadArticle narration That scenario planning often underdelivers, in our observation, can be a simple matter of insufficient experience. Fortunately, an understanding of how such biases undermine scenario planning can mitigate their impact on decision making generally, and improve the effectiveness of scenario planning itself. Combat overconfidence and excessive optimism
THE FUTURIST Magazine Releases Its Top 10 Forecasts for 2013 and Beyond Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, the 2008 financial crisis and the end of the Cold War. But these forecasts are meant as conversation starters, not absolute predictions about the future. We hope that this report--covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine, resources, society and values, and technology--inspires you to tackle the challenges, and seize the opportunities, of the coming decade. With no further ado, THE FUTURIST Magazine releases its top ten forecasts for 2013 and beyond. Video by FUTURIST magazine editor Cynthia G. 1. 2. 3. Future "farmers" may consist of householders recycling their food waste in their own aquariums. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Happy futuring
Tom Vanderbilt Explains Why We Could Predict Self-Driving Cars, But Not Women in the Workplace In early 1999, during the halftime of a University of Washington basketball game, a time capsule from 1927 was opened. Among the contents of this portal to the past were some yellowing newspapers, a Mercury dime, a student handbook, and a building permit. The crowd promptly erupted into boos. Such disappointment in time capsules seems to run endemic, suggests William E. In his book Predicting the Future, Nicholas Rescher writes that “we incline to view the future through a telescope, as it were, thereby magnifying and bringing nearer what we can manage to see.” These observations apply neatly to technology. As Amazon experiments with aerial drone delivery, its “same day” products are being moved through New York City thanks to that 19th-century killer app: the bicycle. But when it comes to culture we tend to believe not that the future will be very different than the present day, but that it will be roughly the same. Chances are, that person resembles you now. References 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist (PhysOrg.com) -- Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change. Fenner, who is emeritus professor of microbiology at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra, said homo sapiens will not be able to survive the population explosion and “unbridled consumption,” and will become extinct, perhaps within a century, along with many other species. United Nations official figures from last year estimate the human population is 6.8 billion, and is predicted to pass seven billion next year. Fenner told The Australian he tries not to express his pessimism because people are trying to do something, but keep putting it off. Fenner said that climate change is only at its beginning, but is likely to be the cause of our extinction. Easter Island is famous for its massive stone statues.
The Science of Mental Time Travel and Why Our Ability to Imagine the Future Is Essential to Our Humanity | Brain Pickings By Maria Popova Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland remains one of my all-time favorite books, largely because Carroll taps his training as a logician to imbue the whimsical story with an allegorical dimension that blends the poetic with the philosophical. To wit: The Red Queen remembers the future instead of the past — an absurd proposition so long as we think of time as linear and memory as beholden to the past, and yet a prescient one given how quantum physics (coincidentally, a perfect allegorical exploration of Wonderland) conceives of time and what modern cognitive science tells us about how elastic our experience of time is. As it turns out, the Red Queen is far more representative of how human memory actually works than we dare believe. Without it, there would be no planning, no building, no culture; without an imagined picture of the future, our civilization would not exist. And yet the benefits outweigh the costs, in evolutionary terms.