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Black swan theory

Black swan theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Background[edit] Taleb asserts:[8] Based on the author's criteria:

Surgeons make cancer cells fluoresce for removal - health - 18 September 2011 Video: Glowing ovarian cancer cells help track tumours Trying to remove every last cancer cell during surgery can be a bit like playing blind man's buff: they are often the same colour as healthy cells, so surgeons risk leaving behind cancer cells which can regrow. But that could change thanks to a technique that makes ovarian cancer cells glow. Currently, surgeons largely rely on touch to determine where an ovarian tumour starts and ends. "You have no real clue where the borders are," says Gooitzen Van Dam of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. Van Dam and his colleagues took advantage of the fact that the vast majority of ovarian cancer cells over-express a receptor for folate on their cell surface while normal cells do not. The labelled folate was taken up by the cancer cells but not normal cells, so surgeons could use a camera that detects fluorescence to see the tumours. Journal reference: Nature Medicine, DOI: 10.1038/nm.2472 More From New Scientist More from the web

Mathematical and Quantitative Papers A mixture of my lectures, & musings when I am bored, ranging from probability theory & quantitative finance to computational epistemology. Collected Published Papers (in One Volume) New Paper on Errors Aims of the lectures: In short, statistics without being an idiot savant. · Pre- asymptotics (all that happens takes place outside the limit), · Inverse Problems (many models can explain the same phenomena), and · Platonicities (the reduction of the fool) are the same illness under different symptoms. Probability theory does not have to be Platonic. You can go from empiricism to formalism --looking for inverse problems and sensitivity to error in the choice of model. Lecture 1 – Platonic convergence & the Central Limit Theorem. Lecture 2 - Preasymptotics & Small Sample Effects of α ≤1 or Saint Petersburgh -Style Infinite First Moment Situations. Lecture 3 - The fundamental problem of the 0th moment and the irrelevance of "naked probability" Lecture 6 - Option Pricing & True Fat tails

Solar Tech Finding Claims 50% Efficiency The “black swan theory” refers to real events beyond the realm of normal expectations–and that’s how an international team of researchers at SciTech Solar (lead by a former professor emeritus from Penn State) are referring to their latest breakthrough, a technology that allows for ultra high-efficiency solar cells to generate DC, or direct current electricity. Why is this such a big deal in the solar world? Apparently because it makes possible the design and fabrication of a new class of solar energy converters which could allow for a dramatic increase in energy conversion efficiency and cost savings of solar cells. image via SciTech Associates The technology is based on a new “optical rectification” process that makes use of a simple, cost-effective, single element system that extracts energy from the solar spectrum from the infrared through the visible light spectrum.

Herd Behaviour AS & A2 Economics - Intensive Exam Coaching & Revision Workshops: Book Now! Stratford | Fulham | Bristol | Birmingham | Gateshead | Leeds | Manchester Monday, November 28, 2011 PrintEmailTweet This! Professor Andrew Oswald from the University of Warwick delivered a pitch-perfect lecture on the significance of herd behaviour in his talk at the LSE tonight. Why has the Economics discipline been so tawdry in understanding better some of the Biology and Psychology behind the behaviour of groups? Herding is associated with behavioural traits such as copying, clustering, imitating and conformity. Paul Ormerod makes some revealing and instructive comments on copying in this excellent video from a recent RSA talk. One of Oswald’s arguments is that in the majority of circumstances, our natural, perhaps sub-conscious instincts to herd serve us well. It turns out that your relative position in the crowd matters a lot! Have a look at your wrists! Why does herding behaviour matter? Dates and Locations

Black Hat SEO Black Hat SEO Diary - SEO Black Hat Techniques Money, Power and Wall Street | FRONTLINE Did the Fed’s Emergency Lending Prop Up “Too Big to Fail”? May 1, 2012, 8:44 pm ET · by Azmat Khan The Obama administration arrived in Washington in early 2009 facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression — and an American public outraged by bailouts for the financial institutions that had gotten them there. Pioneer Behind Credit Derivatives is Leaving JPMorgan April 3, 2014, 4:16 pm ET · by Jason M. Blythe Masters, who helped develop one of the most notorious financial instruments of the 2008 financial crisis, has announced plans to leave JPMorgan Chase. The Financial Crisis Five Years Later — How It Changed Us September 10, 2013, 10:50 am ET · by Jason M. It has been five years since the financial crisis began, and though the economy is on the mend, the legacy of the crash still reverberates. JPMorgan To Lose $842 Million In Toxic Ala. June 5, 2013, 3:22 pm ET · by Jason M. Financial Regulators Turn Their Focus To Non-Banks June 4, 2013, 3:24 pm ET · by Jason M. Is the U.S.

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