La théorie du complot climatique Ces derniers jours, on a beaucoup entendu parler sur le net du "climate hack", autrement dit de ces pirates qui ont infiltré les serveurs de l'unité de recherche sur le climat (CRU) de l'université britannique d'East Anglia, l’un des principaux laboratoires de recherche du GIEC, pour y voler 1073 échanges d’emails (disponibles sur ce site)… La polémique a rapidement été reprise par tous les climato-sceptiques… alors qu’un seul courriel en 13 ans, écrit par Phil Jones, directeur du CRU, évoque l’usage d’une "astuce" par le chercheur pour cacher une divergence, dans certains jeux de données, entre épaisseur des cernes d'arbres et température. Or comme le souligne cet article de ZdNet, dans de telles conditions, à 2 semaines seulement du sommet de l’ONU sur le climat, "savoir qui sont les pirates et leurs éventuels commanditaires est aussi important que le vol lui-même". Sur le net, les sceptiques font plus de bruit que les convaincus Batailles sur le web Plus d'articles ici: A Warming Pause?
Climate Etc. Camouflage illusions in the matrix: same mysterious temperature, same day, year after year Wait til you see what Lance Pidgeon has found. He was looking at the BOM website temperature archive maps of Australia for early last century (using AWAP data). He was wondering how the Bureau of Meteorology could possibly create maps this detailed for specific days that long ago. He was especially curious about the remote, vast areas where there were no thermometers, yet there were wiggly jiggly temperature lines on the map, shaded as if they had meaning. Then he noticed something positively strange — April 14th in 1915 and one year later in 1916 looked almost identical, as did the same day in 1917. It is not just ”April 14ths” each year that are suspiciously similar, it’s pretty much all days of the same month. Do AWAP maps and AWAP data matter? AWAP maps are used in press releases and in the news. Significantly, the BOM use trendlines from the AWAP data as justification that their all-homogenized ACORN data is virtually the same as the “unadjusted” data. Guest Post by Lance Pidgeon
More wind and solar than SA can use — we threw away 10% of the generation South Australians have so much wind power, too much, that in Quarter 3 last year the AEMO had to intervene to cut off excess wind and solar generation. Ever since the Great Blackout of 2016 new rules mean that there must be enough back up power running to cope with the fickle vagaries of intermittent energy. (Obviously, this wasting of sacred green electrons wouldn’t need to happen if people weren’t so persnickety about blackouts!) This graph is from the Quarter 3 AEMO report for 2018. It is technically about both wind and solar, but it appears to be mostly wind. Would we put up with any other industrial output that had such a dismal performance. AEMO Quarter 3 report page 7 Synchronous generation is the kind that comes from machines that spin at 50 Hz (like coal, gas, hydro, nukes). But ten percent of all the wind and solar power had to be thrown away in SA because there wasn’t enough reliable back up power to guarantee the stability of the system. Rating: 9.7/10 (68 votes cast)
Luboš Motl: The Reference Frame Un Hackeur a volé des données du GIEC et on s’est rendu compte q La BBC confirme cette information qui a mis la blogosphère anglophone en ébullition, et commence à toucher la grande presse. Un pirate aurait réussi à pénétrer les ordinateurs du Hadley Center (parfois désigné sous le vocable de CRU, Climate Research Unit), le centre d’études climatologiques de référence du GIEC, vertement critiqué par Vincent Courtillot dans ses vidéos pour refus de communiquer ses données brutes, et dont je vous entretenais des soupçons de fraude scientifiques qui accompagnaient son directeur, un certain Phil Jones. Tout acte de piratage actif d’un ordinateur dont l’utilisateur n’a pas souhaité ouvrir l’accès est un acte répréhensible, mais en l’occurence, j’ai du mal à en vouloir au(x) Hacker(s), malgré l’illégalité de son acte. Le butin, de 61Mo une fois zippé, comporte 72 documents et 1073 e-mails. Véracité : probable Le pirate a mis les fichiers en libre accès sur plusieurs serveurs de "dump", que vous trouverez facilement. Contenus : décapants Quelques exemples
NoTricksZone: Not here to worship what is known, but to question it. Climate news from Germany in English – by Pierre L. Gosselin Buddhist pagoda washed away as heavy floods hit Myanmar Posted Dramatic riverbank erosion in Myanmar has washed away a Buddhist pagoda, amid heavy flooding across large parts of the country that has displaced tens of thousands and caused two deaths. Video provided to Reuters by a Buddhist monk near Pakokku, 520 kilometres north of the commercial hub of Yangon, showed a gold-leaf-covered pagoda slipping into the raging waters of the Ayeyarwady late last week. The abbott at the pagoda, U Pyinnya Linkkara, said flooding was common in the area during the monsoon that runs from May to October, but this year's floods caused alarming erosion. Some riverside villages have been washed away entirely, he said. "The villagers are now scared to live here," he said. "The flooding has now decreased, but erosion continues." Water levels have risen steadily since unrelenting monsoon rain began to lash the heart of the South-East Asian country in early July, driving some people to higher land or seek shelter in Buddhist monasteries, a disaster relief official said.
Report on Aug 25 blackouts shows how fragile our grid is (and the real cost of cheap solar panels). Badly installed solar PV makes Australia’s grid fragile On August 25 last year there was nearly a system black when, improbably, three states of Australia were islanded by one lightning strike. Within seconds, trips were switching, two smelters were load shed to save the grid from collapse, and across the Eastern Seaboard of Australia frequency and voltages surged or fell everywhere. In Sydney 45,000 homes lost power for a couple of hours. Shops had to close. Trains were stopped. The AEMO final report on that day has just come out and shows us just how fragile our grid is. It turns out that another cost of cheap rushed solar panels is that many drop out with voltage spikes, suddenly going offline and leaving another hole to fill. If smelters are offline, hundreds of thousands of dollars are burning, and millions is at risk… Obviously the true costs of installing solar panels properly are higher than advertised. August outages underline risks to the reliability of the national grid
Climate Depot ClimateGate (2): Nouvelles révélations toujour Je vous ai évoqué Samedi la naissance d'un Climategate, à partir d'un fichier piraté au "Climate Research Unit" contenant des mels et des documents "chauds". Les sites qui exposent les contenus plus que litigieux des mels et de certains fichiers du CRU explosent. Les bloggueurs investigateurs se comptent par centaines, et nul doute que les jours à venir seront encore riches en nouveautés. Afin d'éviter de faire du simple copier coller, je me contenterait d'en signaler les meilleurs extraits avec leur source en fin d'article. Je signale tout de suite le remarquable travail de l'équipe de Skyfal qui résume les mels les plus croustillants ici. Juste quelques précisions liminaires Je rappelle que les mels sont disponibles avec un moteur de recherche interne depuis cette page. Mais je voudrais revenir sur le tableau général que dressent ces révélations. Débat sur l'authenticité Tout d'abord, leur authenticité ne fait plus guère de doute. Au reste, ni M. Contenu Virer les opposants ! Mike, Salut,
The climate one year on: exit carbon tax, enter brown coal ▪ More 2nd Degree A year on from the abolition of the carbon price, greenhouse pollution from electricity generation has rebounded as Australia burns more brown coal to meet its power needs. Carbon dioxide emissions from the national electricity grid jumped by 6.4 million tonnes in the financial year after the Abbott government repealed the scheme that required big industry to buy pollution permits, according to analysis by consultants Pitt & Sherry. The 4.3 per cent increase unwound part of an 11 per cent fall in emissions across the grid in the two years the carbon price was in place. It can mainly be attributed to Victoria's four large brown coal generators running at greater capacity more often as the electricity they generate became cheaper. Output from the ageing Latrobe Valley quartet was up about nine per cent. Loy Yang coal power plant near Traralgon in the Latrobe Valley. Get the latest news and updates emailed straight to your inbox. What you may have missed
Solar overload — “Costs a fortune” as the super Duck Curve flood of electricity hits Australia Ladies and Gentlemen, Australia is now romping in as Star-Crash-Test-Dummy in the renewables stake. Proportionally, we have more uncontrolled solar roof top generators than any other nation. We’re in uncharted territory: about 20% of houses in Hawaii and California have Solar PV, but in Western Australia, it’s 25%. In Queensland it’s 30% and throughout Australia we are adding 100MW a month and it’s like a whole new coal fired station every year (except it doesn’t work most of the time). Strap yourself in! Electricity at the wrong time is not just wasted, it’s a burden Too much electricity bumps up the grid frequency and voltage, potentially damaging equipment and risking blackouts. If you like your computer, you can keep your computer. Welcome to the Duck Curve Each year as more solar power arrives when we don’t need it in the middle of the day, the belly of the load curve swings lower and lower. The tail of the duck is the secondary peak at breakfast. I say, just stop.