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The Limits to Growth

The Limits to Growth
Five variables were examined in the original model. These variables are: world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion. The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that would be achieved by altering growth trends among the five variables under three scenarios. They noted that their projections for the values of the variables in each scenario were predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word," and were only indications of the system's behavioral tendencies.[4] Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid to latter part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a "stabilized world. The most recent updated version was published on June 1, 2004 by Chelsea Green Publishing Company and Earthscan under the name Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. The book continues to generate fervent debate and has been the subject of several subsequent publications.

The Markets are Mad: Is High-Frequency Trading Making Things Worse? (liquidlibrary) Thursday’s 423-point gain by the Dow marked the first time ever that the industrial average has posted four consecutive days of 400-point moves. Less than two weeks into August, there have already been six trading days that saw triple-digit swings this month. While the recent sell-off has been swift (the Dow is off more than 12% since July 21), it’s also been choppy. While your average investor generally hates volatility, there are those who feed off it, namely high-frequency traders. Now, it’s not quite fair to lump all high-frequency traders together. Ever since last year’s Flash Crash, there’s been a debate brewing over the utility of high-frequency trading. A pair of recent academic papers have taken a long look at the pros and cons of high-frequency trading, and together paint a not-so-nice picture. This study investigates the effect of high trading volume on observed stock volatility.

Club of Rome The Club of Rome is a global think tank that deals with a variety of international political issues. Founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy, the CoR describes itself as "a group of world citizens, sharing a common concern for the future of humanity." It consists of current and former heads of state, UN bureaucrats, high-level politicians and government officials, diplomats, scientists, economists and business leaders from around the globe.[1] It raised considerable public attention in 1972 with its report The Limits to Growth. The club states that its mission is "to act as a global catalyst for change through the identification and analysis of the crucial problems facing humanity and the communication of such problems to the most important public and private decision makers as well as to the general public. Formation[edit] A study by Graham Turner of the research organisation CSIRO in Australia in 2008 found Organization[edit] National associations[edit] Worldviews[edit]

Les neuf vies du secret bancaire helvétique, par Sébastien Guex Au début de 2009, sous l’impulsion des principaux pays membres de l’Union européenne et des Etats-Unis, l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) s’est décidée à faire un pas, après avoir longtemps résisté. Elle a menacé d’inscrire la Suisse sur une liste de paradis fiscaux — ce qui aurait impliqué de lourdes sanctions à son égard — si Berne ne révisait pas rapidement au moins douze conventions dites « de double imposition » (CDI) en souscrivant au principe d’entraide internationale en cas non seulement de fraude, mais aussi d’évasion fiscale. La législation helvétique opère en effet une distinction entre la fraude fiscale — c’est-à-dire la soustraction à l’impôt grâce à la falsification de documents, considérée comme un délit pénal — et l’évasion fiscale, passible de simples poursuites administratives, et donc n’autorisant pas la levée du secret bancaire. En parallèle de l’action de l’OCDE s’est développée celle des Etats-Unis. Vous êtes abonné(e) ?

Systems theory Systems theory is the interdisciplinary study of systems in general, with the goal of elucidating principles that can be applied to all types of systems at all nesting levels in all fields of research.[citation needed] The term does not yet have a well-established, precise meaning, but systems theory can reasonably be considered a specialization of systems thinking; alternatively as a goal output of systems science and systems engineering, with an emphasis on generality useful across a broad range of systems (versus the particular models of individual fields). A central topic of systems theory is self-regulating systems, i.e. systems self-correcting through feedback. Self-regulating systems are found in nature, including the physiological systems of our body, in local and global ecosystems, and in climate—and in human learning processes (from the individual on up through international organizations like the UN).[3] Overview[edit] Examples of applications[edit] Systems biology[edit]

Why Adult Adoption is Key to the Success of Japanese Family Firms (iStockphoto) What happens when the heir to a family business isn’t up to the job? Not great things, apparently. But the Japanese have a solution: adult adoption. Rather than hand the firm to a less-than-worthy blood heir, Japanese families often adopt an adult to take over. America and Japan have the highest rates of adoption in the world – with one big difference. Mehrotra explains that adopting a scion is similar to a hostile takeover. Tokugawa Ieyasu, first shogun of the Tokugawa period. The roots of Japanese adult adoption trace back to merchants of the Tokugawa era (1603-1867). Unlike China or India, where preference for baby boys is extreme to the point of gendercide, the Japanese have an adage that rejoices in the birth of a girl: You can’t choose your sons, but you can choose your sons-in-law. Today, it is preferred (though not required) for the adopted heir of a business dynasty to marry one of the family’s daughters, becoming a family member twice over.

Twelve leverage points The twelve leverage points to intervene in a system were proposed by Donella Meadows, a scientist and system analyst focused on environmental limits to economic growth. The leverage points, first published in 1997, were inspired by her attendance at a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) meeting in the early 1990s where she realized that a very large new system was being proposed but the mechanisms to manage it were ineffective. Meadows, who worked in the field of systems analysis, proposed a scale of places to intervene in a system. Her observations are often cited in energy economics, green economics and human development theory. She started with the observation that there are levers, or places within a complex system (such as a firm, a city, an economy, a living being, an ecosystem, an ecoregion) where a "small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything" (compare: constraint in the sense of Theory of Constraints). Leverage points to intervene in a system[edit] 12.

Should Bad Predictions Be Punished? Government corn predictions are based on the work of people like Phil Friedrichs, gathering data in a corn field in Hiawatha, Kansas. (Photo: Stephen Koranda) What do Wall Street forecasters and Romanian witches have in common? But then there’s the U.S. This week on Marketplace, Stephen J. We’ll also hear from journalist Vlad Mixich in Bucharest, who tells us why those Romanian witches might not be getting away with bad fortune telling for much longer. Here’s where to find Marketplace on the radio near you. System dynamics Dynamic stock and flow diagram of model New product adoption (model from article by John Sterman 2001) System dynamics is an approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire system.[1] What makes using system dynamics different from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use of feedback loops and stocks and flows. These elements help describe how even seemingly simple systems display baffling nonlinearity. Overview[edit] System dynamics (SD) is a methodology and mathematical modeling technique for framing, understanding, and discussing complex issues and problems. Convenient GUI system dynamics software developed into user friendly versions by the 1990s and have been applied to diverse systems. System dynamics is an aspect of systems theory as a method for understanding the dynamic behavior of complex systems. History[edit] Topics in systems dynamics[edit]

Interpreting the Fed: How Did it Lower Rates This Time? I’ve found a lot of the recent discussion about the Fed to be, frankly, confused. So I thought it worth trying to put the issues into a broader context. Read the Fed’s latest statement, and you’ll see many of the themes I’ve talked about recently. They’ve learned that the economy is not only weak, but that—as I’ve been forecasting for some time—“economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.” Turn to the labor market, and they somewhat dryly note “a deterioration in overall labor market conditions.” Typically, the Fed does this by reducing the Federal Funds Rate, which is an interest rate on overnight loans. So the key is for the Fed to reduce long-term rates. Recently, the Fed has been doing this by “Quantitative Easing.” Many market commentators are disappointed that the Fed didn’t announce “QE3”—a renewed round of quantitative easing. So yes, we got lower long-term interest rates.

Asia’s BRICs Hit the Wall - Jaswant Singh Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space NEW DELHI –India’s democratic credentials do not impress Francis Fukuyama, who two decades ago prophesied the “end of history,” as being a catalyst for the country’s economic growth. Fukuyama finds excessive “patronage politics and fractiousness” in India – flaws that stand in stark contrast to China’s speedier, though not necessarily cleaner, political system. The reality is, however, somewhat different. The economist Nouriel Roubini has predicted that China’s economy will most likely slow sometime between 2013 and 2015, the point at which its fixed-asset investments of nearly 50% of GDP will demand social and monetary returns. India is facing severe difficulties as well, but of a different nature. Clearly, economic turbulence is roiling both of Asia’s major economies, the giants of the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). Indeed, India’s core challenge remains political.

Dans les arcanes de la fraude fiscale, par Guillaume Pitron Révélées par la crise financière en 2008, les pratiques frauduleuses de la Liechtenstein Global Trust et de la banque suisse UBS permettaient à des contribuables européens et américains de dissimuler leur fortune. C’est le point de départ de Xavier Harel, qui dissèque les dessous de l’évasion fiscale : une industrie où soixante-dix « passagers clandestins de la mondialisation » rivalisent d’ingéniosité et de souplesse pour attirer discrètement l’argent des milliardaires et des multinationales. Journaliste à La Tribune, l’auteur décrit avec pédagogie l’infinie variété d’instruments financiers, de montages et d’acteurs impliqués. Taille de l’article complet : 479 mots. Vous êtes abonné(e) ? Connectez-vous pour accéder en ligne aux articles du journal. Vous n'êtes pas abonné(e) ? Choisissez votre formule et créez votre compte pour accéder à tout le site. Accès sans abonnement

Secrets et merveilles de la finance au Laos, par Xavier Monthéard Docteur en économie, l’Australien Darrell Walker est un consultant comblé. Le quotidien laotien Vientiane Times lui a ouvert ses colonnes pendant huit mois. Il y a expliqué à un lectorat présumé mal dégrossi les secrets et merveilles de la finance internationale. Ainsi couvée, la Bourse se devait d’éclore en temps et en heure. Quelques voix ont mis en doute la pertinence de la création de ces places boursières dans des pays où les taux de croissance flatteurs font difficilement oublier l’accroissement fulgurant des inégalités. Taille de l’article complet : 1 244 mots. Vous êtes abonné(e) ? Connectez-vous pour accéder en ligne aux articles du journal. Vous n'êtes pas abonné(e) ? Choisissez votre formule et créez votre compte pour accéder à tout le site. Accès sans abonnement

The Wobbly West - Anders Åslund Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA – Early in the financial crisis, a major emerging-market investor told me: “This is not a global, but a semi-global financial crisis.” He was right: it really was a crisis of the United States, Europe, and Japan. Among emerging markets, only Eastern Europe was badly hit. The eurozone sovereign-debt crisis appears to have been the worst-managed financial crisis since Argentina’s default in 2001. The International Monetary Fund has never bet such huge sums on a single country as it has on Greece. Is this a responsible use of international taxpayers’ money? The apparent explanation for the IMF’s extraordinary gamble is that the managing director who made the decision to support Greece so heavily hailed from the eurozone and, at the time, was barely disguising his ambitions to run for the French presidency – that is, before his arrest in New York on charges of rape.

Wall Street et la City en guerre contre l'euro Après le 11 septembre, la solidarité avec les Etats-Unis était de rigueur et nécessaire. Dix ans plus tard, les turbulences que nous font vivre aujourd’hui les marchés sont désormais de nature à ébranler fortement cette solidarité transatlantique. Tout se passe en effet comme si, dans la formidable redistribution des cartes qui est en train de s’opérer, la lutte d’influence passait par les monnaies. publicité Bien sur, les économistes diront: les marchés sont les marchés! Il n’est donc pas question de nier les difficultés objectives: celles de la Grèce bien sûr, et celles, plus politiques, de l’Italie, qui font partie des soubresauts liés à l’agonie de l’ère berlusconienne. Pas plus qu’il ne faut nier, ou sous-estimer, le rôle des lenteurs, des atermoiements des Européens eux-mêmes et l’évidente mauvaise volonté de la chancelière allemande. Les vexations des agence de notations Mais, si l’on regarde les choses depuis une autre planète, que voit-on? La stabilité de la zone euro

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