Et si la Grèce s’en sortait?…. - Telos. Reprise de la croissance, excédent primaire significatif, retour sur les marchés… Et si le redressement grec était en train de réussir ? La question est à présent de débloquer la question de la dette. Les conditions sont-elles réunies? Reprise de la croissance, excédent primaire significatif, exécution du plan d’économies avec une nouvelle baisse des pensions, retour sur les marchés, un FMI prêt à rejoindre le train du plan d’aide en oubliant ses objections sur la solvabilité grecque… Et si le redressement grec était en train de réussir, et si l’intransigeance allemande et l’obéissance du Premier ministre Alexis Tsipras aux desiderata des créanciers étaient la solution pour débloquer la question de la dette ?
Les élections allemandes passées et la Chancelière probablement reconduite, Tsipras n’a pas attendu pour revendiquer à nouveau la restructuration de la dette pour prix du sérieux grec, soutenu par Emmanuel Macron dans son discours du Pnyx. Un alignement de planètes favorable 1. 2. Grèce : les paris perdus d'Alexis Tsipras. L'affaire semble entendue. Après deux votes à la Vouli, le parlement grec, de nouvelles mesures d'austérité massives, l'Eurogroupe de ce mardi 24 mai devrait accorder à Athènes la libération de quelques 11 milliards d'euros, si l'on en croit l'agence Bloomberg citant un document de la Commission européenne. A l'entrée de la réunion, le président de l'Eurogroupe, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, a confirmé que les fonds pourraient être versés "dans les prochaines semaines.
" Sur cette somme, la Grèce devrait utiliser 7,2 milliards d'euros pour couvrir les remboursements de la dette prévue, à court et long terme, jusqu'en novembre, notamment 2,4 milliards d'euros à la BCE et 1,07 milliard d'euros au FMI. Le solde, soit 3,8 milliards d'euros, devraient venir couvrir une partie des arriérés de paiements de l'Etat grec.
Ce sera la première fois, du reste, que les fonds européens viennent « servir » non pas les créanciers de l'Etat grec, mais plutôt leurs débiteurs, autrement dit l'économie grecque. A “4. Bailout” for Greece & Debt Relief “light”? Whatever the name, Greeks are burdened with €9bn austerity package for 2016-2018. Tagged: 9 billoion euro, debt relief "light", eurogroup, extra contigency measures, Greece, IMF, Schaeuble, SYRIZA MPs, Tsakalotos, Tsipras Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Economy More austerity, more work and more measures. that was the slogan of Friday’s Eurogroup on Greece. An agreement between the two sides was not on the agenda. It was just talks to force the Greek government accept the conditions of the International Monetary Fund for an extra package of 3.6 billion euro “contingency measures” – 2% of GDP – for the case the debt-ridden country will not meet the third bailout targets in 2018 by implementing a 5.4 billion euro austerity.
This saving of 2% of GDP is the difference between Greece’s European lenders and the IMF with regards to Primary Surplus for 2018. The Europeans forecast 3.5%, the IMF says this target is to high and cannot be achiedved without further austerity. “We need to work on how that mechanism is going to look like. The IMF has a loyal comrade, Dr Schaueble. All rigged in advance: Schaeuble offers €3bn extra measures to satisfy capricious Lagarde & the IMF. Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Economy Effrontery in its full width. All rigged in advance. A package of 3-billion-euro extra austerity measures to convince the International Monetary Fund to join the Greek program. Proposal was apparently tabled by German Finance Minister Wolgang Schaeuble at a secret meeting in Washington on Sunday, but it was a European Commission proposal from March. It’s only that the Europeans and the IMF could not agree on the terms.
Just two days ago, the International Monetary Fund expressed its displeasure over “Greeks having misinterpreted Poul Thomsen’s statements that Greece would need more austerity measures.” An extra package of 3-billion-euro austerity measures, as a ‘safety pillow’, for the case Greece misses the 3.5% Primary Surplus target. €5.4 billion measures of 3. bailout + €3 billion extra ‘preventive measures’ = €8.4 billion Such “interest rates” are not implement even by loan sharks… It’s just 3 billions… Who knows who will be Prime Minister in 2018.
Greece stands on fault line between vicious and virtuous cycles for 2016. During 2015, Greece’s ability to meet its debt obligations became one of the most drama-ridden aspects of a story that started unfolding when SYRIZA won the January elections. The newly elected government’s instant choice to follow confrontational tactics with Greece’s lenders and its loudly stated intention to stay away from any assistance programme resembling the arrangements of the two previous ones meant that any troika financing was put immediately on hold. This left Alexis Tsipras’s government with little choice but to start scraping the bottom of the funding barrel very early on. Routine debt servicing and other obligations like the habitual rollover of T-Bills quickly became sources of drama, with the flames often fanned by statements of government and party members, including Tsipras himself, that Greece would pay pensions and salaries rather than the IMF if it was forced to make a choice.
Greece’s debt servicing profile in 2016 is quite benign. Greece considers Special Tax on Bank Transactions to avoid pension cuts. Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Society The Greek government is allegedly considering to impose a special tax on bank transactions in order to avoid further cuts into main pensions as demanded by the country’s creditors. The government’s alleged thought have been revealed by daily Ta NEA, at a time when Greece and creditors keep exchanging ‘negotiation’ emails on pensions reforms and just days before the Greeks will have to accept painful cuts in pensions and new terms & conditions for retirement. According to state ERT TV, the tax will be imposed to bank transactions voer 1,000 euro and it will be something like 1 per mille or 1 ‰.
I am 99% sure, the creditors will reject this “equivalent measure”. I think, I heard, this special tax would be imposed to fill the pensions gap for 2016. For the last few weeks and every other day, I have been reading scenarios about the future of pensions in Greece. PS I felt uncomfortable over Christmas. Pourquoi l'Europe menace la Grèce d'une expulsion de Schengen. Après avoir été menacée d'une expulsion de la zone euro cet été, la Grèce est cette fois menacée d'être expulsée de l'espace Schengen. Selon l'édition de ce mercredi 2 décembre du Financial Times, les institutions européennes menaceraient désormais clairement la Grèce « d'être suspendue » de l'espace de libre-circulation européen.
Les ministres de l'Intérieur devraient agiter cette menace lors de leur réunion de jeudi, mais elle devrait être signifiée durant la semaine au gouvernement hellénique par le ministre luxembourgeois des Affaires étrangères, Jean Asselborn, dont le pays exerce ce semestre la présidence tournante de l'UE. Les raisons invoquées pour l'expulsion Cette menace avait déjà été évoquée par le président de l'Eurogroupe, la réunion des ministres des Finances de la zone euro, le néerlandais Jeroen Dijsselbloem, fin novembre. La question des patrouilles avec la Turquie A y voir de plus près, la situation est bien plus complexe. Pour la Grèce, tout ceci est problématique. » Grèce : l’économie s’est effondrée au troisième trimestre. Source : La tribune, Romaric Godin, 27/11/2015 L’économie grecque s’est contractée de 0,9 % au troisième trimestre. (Crédits : Reuters) Le chiffre révisé du PIB hellénique entre juillet et septembre a mis en lumière une contraction de 0,9 %, au lieu des 0,5 % annoncés d’abord.
Tous les signaux sont au rouge, notamment le tourisme et la consommation. Voici deux semaines, la publication « flash » de l’évolution du PIB grec pour le troisième trimestre avait surpris les observateurs. En réalité, la contraction de la richesse grecque était évidemment plus prononcée. Tous les signaux au rouge Pour retrouver une contraction supérieure à ces 0,9 %, il faut remonter au premier trimestre 2013 (-1,8 %). L’investissement recule de 9,5 %, l’investissement productif de 7 %.
Rares éléments positifs Reste qu’il existe quelques rares éléments positifs. Quelle responsabilité ? Reste, enfin, la question de la responsabilité de ce désastre. Stabilité sur trois mois Et maintenant ? Greece's €2bn payment still blocked. This Monday's (9 November) Eurogroup is unlikely to unblock a €2-billion tranche from Greece's bailout, after weekend talks between the Greek government and creditors did not bridge differences on reforms. The two sides remain divided on the issues of home foreclosure and repayment of fiscal arrears by individuals.
Greece's creditors - the EU, the European Central Bank, the European Stability Fund, and the International Monetary Fund - want to lower the level of protection under which owners who do not pay their mortgages can have their house seized. They also want to tighten the so-called 100-installment scheme for repayment of arrears to the Greek treasury. Under the scheme, Greeks can repay their debt to the state in 100 separate payments.
Creditors demand that someone who misses a payment is expelled from the scheme, while the Greek government wants a 25-day grace period. Vicious circle The issues are symbolic for both sides. Political test. Grèce : pourquoi Alexis Tsipras veut être le "bon élève" de la troïka. Désormais, Alexis Tsipras doit entrer dans le vif du sujet. Ce lundi 5 octobre, le premier ministre prononcera son discours de politique générale devant la Vouli, le parlement grec, après avoir présenté les grandes lignes de son projet de budget pour 2016. Au même moment, le ministre des Finances Euclide Tsakalotos négociera avec ses collègues de l'Eurogroupe les mesures qui devront être prises pour obtenir le déblocage des fonds du Mécanisme européen de Stabilité (MES) dans les prochains mois. 49 mesures au menu Concrètement, selon le site grec Macropolis, le gouvernement Tsipras III va devoir s'engager une liste de 49 mesures à faire adopter avant le 15 octobre afin de débloquer un versement de deux milliards d'euros du MES.
Une seconde liste devra être mise en place avant novembre pour débloquer un milliard d'euros supplémentaires. Pour autant, le gouvernement grec n'a aucune raison de traîner les pieds. Rétablir la normalité économique Rétablir la confiance. Keeptalkinggreece. Greece’s new model: “Flexible Pensions” based on family “assets & income criteria”
Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Society Nothing will be ever be the same after the thorough overhaul – call it “structural reform” – of the Greek social security system. Τhe working years aka social security contributions will rise but at the same time the monthly pension amount will dramatically decrease. I do not know how long the members of the so-called Wise Committee that produced the 28 document of findings had been working on it. But they sure triggered a justified outrage. Flexible National Pension with Yo-Yo Effect Basic for the new pensions system will be a so-called “Flexible National Pension” of €300 or €400 per month gross and this will not be a stable constant as it will depend on the reserves of the social security funds. On the reserves of the Fundson the social security contributions pad by the pensioner when he was workingon the pensioner’s family “assets and income”.
A family pension, so to say? Pensions Cuts of 13% 0 17% Tax Office to collect the money Right! 1:2 Greece’s children doesn’t know if there will be a meal on the table. Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Society Taxes? What taxes? It’s poverty that rules. One in two school children in “vulnerable areas” of Greece does not know if there will be a meal on the family table. According to data collected during the school year 2014-2015 by Institute Prolepsis one in three families live in poverty or social exclusion. From the children enrolled into the school nutritional program, 53% of them experienced “food insecurity”, while 21% experienced “hunger”. In 64% of the families one parent was without income, while 15% of the families had no source of income at all. The reason is obvious: the austerity cuts of the last 5.5 years that have reduced the family income at more than 33%.
Children who are hungry often abstain from visiting school or even stop attend classes. In cooperation with several institutions and foundations like the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, Prolepsis provides children in socioeconomic vulnerable areas with meals. PS Food for children? EP approves Juncker’s Plan for Greece, EU-Funds to restart pouring for Jobs & Growth. Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Economy The European Commission is moving forwards. Slowly. Βut it is moving. President Jean-Claude Juncker is determined to ‘rescue’ Greece and goes into EU history as the protector of the European poor and needy. And he will. His Jobs and Growth Plan for Greece was adopted by the European Parliament and it is expected to go into force as of middle of October, that is in less than two weeks.
The ambitious Juncker plan will allow Greece to make full use of EU Structural Funds and thus without to have το cover expenses through national co-financing and thus retrospective for the 2007-2013 package that remained unused. As everybody knows Greece has no money to co-finance EU-funded projects. But now this bad practice is over. According to a European Commission statement hailing the EP approval: Fine. The EU officials cheer and congratulate each other. Is Greece still an EU-member? A new start for jobs and growth in Greece: Commission mobilises more than €35 billion from the EU budget. Two days after an agreement paving the way for a new support programme for Greece, the European Commission revealed plans today to help Greece maximise its use of EU funds. As mandated by the Euro Summit on 12/13 July, this will help mobilise more than €35 billion up to 2020 to support the Greek economy, provided that the conditions agreed upon by the Euro Summit will be met.
The Jobs and Growth Plan for Greece is meant to flank the comprehensive set of reforms that could form part of a programme under the European Stability Mechanism to be negotiated in the coming weeks between Greece and its international partners. Both elements – the reforms and the mobilisation of funds for investment and cohesion – are essential preconditions for restoring jobs and growth in Greece and returning the country to prosperity. The Jobs and Growth Plan will help to invest in people and companies in Greece. The Investment Plan for Europe can play a crucial role for jobs and growth in Greece. Background. Regling: Greece should not expect big debt write-down, not necessary to revive economy. Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Economy Klaus Regling, the German managing director of the European Stability Mechanism played down Greece’s expectations for a large-scale debt write down.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Regling said among others that Greece was already benefiting from generous loan terms that were the most concessionary “in world history”. “I think now there’s a big convergence,” Mr Regling said to FT, “The Greek government realises there will be no nominal [debt] haircut — and for good reasons. The Greek government should sell what has happened already — and what might have been — very positively to their electorate, to the Greek population, because the benefits are there in any case.” I don’t know what Regling means or why does he care about the government electorate. In July, the International Monetary Fund had pushed for deeper debt relief with repayment extension and periods of grace. Neither do I understand the FT intro to Regling’s interview reading.