Christopher J.L. Murray. *Authors listed alphabetically †Joint senior authors ‡Corresponding author.
UW School of Public Health. Professor, Health Metrics Sciences Adjunct Professor, Global Health Chair, Health Metrics Sciences Adjunct Professor, Health Services.
Margolis Center for Health Policy. Home - CEBM. COVID-19 Pandemic and Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Ecological Study on Data of 185 Countries. EndCoronavirus.org. New England Complex Systems Institute. Online COVID-19 Dashboard Calculates How Risky Reopenings and Gatherings Can Be. On March 11, 2020, the NBA suspended its season after a Utah Jazz player tested positive for COVID-19.
Within a week, March Madness was canceled, and soon after that, many states began to issue stay-at-home orders that have lasted for weeks if not months. Super-spreading events (the Biogen conference, a Washington state choir practice and a post-funeral gathering in southwest Georgia, for example) made it evident that halting gatherings would be an essential part of ongoing public health interventions in the United States and elsewhere. Now, more than two months later, many states, including Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, Maryland and others, are beginning to reopen their economies by relaxing previously stringent lockdown policies. These changes shift the dilemma of deciding where and how to venture out from statewide policy onto individuals. For many, the opportunity for a slice of normalcy seems like welcome relief. Covid-19 Seminar Series : Panopto. Videos you create and videos shared with you will appear here.
Record your first video by clicking "Create" at the top of the page. Learn More Videos created by you and others in your organization will appear here. You can create videos by clicking "Create" at the top of the page. Learn More This list contains no videos. This folder contains no videos. Janelia Research Campus. Ptti/PTTI-Covid-19-UK.pdf at master · ptti/ptti. The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them. Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts.
It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown. As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off.
Estimating the overdispersion in... Introduction A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which is considered to be associated with a market in Wuhan, China, is now affecting a number of countries worldwide1,2.
A substantial number of human-to-human transmission has occurred; the basic reproduction number R0 (the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in a fully susceptible population) has been estimated around 2–33–5. More than 100 countries have observed confirmed cases of COVID-19. A few countries have already been shifting from the containment phase to the mitigation phase6,7, with a substantial number of locally acquired cases (including those whose epidemiological link is untraceable).
On the other hand, there are countries where a number of imported cases were ascertained but fewer secondary cases have been reported than might be expected with an estimated value of R0 of 2–3. Methods. Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza. As of early May 2020, approximately 65 000 people in the US had died of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19),1 the disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
This number appears to be similar to the estimated number of seasonal influenza deaths reported annually by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ( The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why.
An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope is also predictable. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, that would mean that if we stay locked down, we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown. As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv. BioRxiv.org - the preprint server for Biology. Coronavirus mutations and vaccines – worse than murder hornets. I am skeptical of the wild claims about getting a COVID-19 vaccine in 12-18 months, and now there is powerful research about coronavirus mutations that makes me very concerned about getting an effective vaccine.
And you thought murder hornets were bad? These coronavirus mutations could mean a disaster for current vaccine research – if we’re developing vaccines for a previous strain of COVID-19, rather than more current (and apparently, more virulent) coronavirus vaccines. This makes the murder hornets look like a ladybug. A recent paper looks at a particularly dangerous strain of coronavirus mutations that should make us reassess any optimism about getting a new COVID-19 vaccine. Let’s examine the paper. No, COVID-19 Is Not Like The Flu—And We Have To Stop Comparing Them.
I don’t know why everyone is freaking out.
The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year, and no one is shutting down borders because of that. Sound familiar? It’s a common refrain from the past few weeks as the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, made its way across borders from Wuhan, China. It’s something I (now shamefully) admit to saying, myself, when this all first started. Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for coronavirus study – does not work. Because of an awful study from France published on 20 March 2020, Donald Trump and other non-scientists pushed hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for coronavirus.
Of course, this old dinosaur and many others like Orac, who has written several articles about it, found the evidence that hydroxychloroquine, usually with the antibiotic azithromycin, had any effect on COVID-19 was very weak. But a small retrospective study showed hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin had no positive effect on the course or outcomes from severe cases of COVID-19. Let’s take a look. Science-Based Medicine – Exploring issues and controversies in the relationship between science and medicine.
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Broad Institute. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. UW experts on novel coronavirus (COVID-19) The University of Washington is home to many experts on topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Expand each topic to see their names and specific expertise.
Click on an expert’s name to view their contact information, recent media mentions and more. Public health. UW researchers respond to novel coronavirus (COVID-19) COVID-19 experts for reporters US coronavirus predictions are shifting — here’s why Things are still getting worse. The US death toll crossed 14,000 on Wednesday, with a record 1,858 deaths reported just on Tuesday. Since the outbreak started, about 425,000 cases have been diagnosed in the US. And researchers say the peak has yet to come. Source: CNN. Academia.edu - Share research. Population Health Exchange. Imperial College COVID19 Europe estimates and NPI impact 30 03 2020. Features, Evaluation and Treatment Coronavirus (COVID-19) - StatPearls - NCBI Bookshelf. New Immune Cell on the Block During Viral Lung Infections. Scientists have identified a novel group of immune cells in the lungs that are associated with the control of inflammation during viral infections, like influenza or possibly coronavirus.
This discovery may help to advance the development of therapeutics to treat inflammation-related lung conditions such as bronchitis, influenza and potentially even COVID-19. Macrophages are an important subset of phagocytic immune cells found throughout the body that form part of our body’s first line of defense against invading foreign material, including bacteria and viruses. Alveolar macrophages (AMs) are a well-known inhabitant of the lungs and are responsible for direct clearance of viruses. This new group of immune cells, identified in the lungs of mice, are a distinct group of macrophages, dubbed NAMs (nerve and airway associated macrophages), that appear instead to moderate inflammation in the lungs during viral infection. The study was published today in Science Immunology. Governing complex global catastrophic risks ggi policy brief nov2019.
UCL - London's Global University. Covid-19 death statistics say little about susceptible population. Richard A. Goldstein¹, Asif U. Tamuri², David D. Pollock³ ¹Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London; ²Research IT Services, University College London; ³Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, University of Colorado School of Medicine In the midst of a pandemic, scientific results can be used and misused with alarming speed. Our experts are closely following and analyzing updates on this COVID-19 outbreak. Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans.
A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Our experts are closely following and analyzing updates on this outbreak. The following resources will be routinely updated. Situation Reports Updates on the emerging novel coronavirus from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. View all of the situation reports. Fact Sheets. Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses: systematic review. Understanding global health governance as a complex adaptive system: Global Public Health: Vol 6, No 6. Introduction While it is difficult to point to a specific turning point in the evolution from international health towards global health, the changes that have lead Rosenau (2003, pp. 410–414) to relinquish the use of the term ‘international’ in his conceptualisation of world affairs are evident also within the health sector.
The past decade and a half has seen a substantial increase in the numbers of stakeholders in health, and in the configuring of their relationships. Coronavirus: Research, Commentary, and News. The Science journals are striving to provide the best and most timely research, analysis, and news coverage of COVID-19 and the coronavirus that causes it. All content is free to access. News. “Gradually, then suddenly” — 4 ways to think about Coronavirus. The current situation around the coronavirus epidemic is evolving rapidly. In some of my social circles the most pressing worry is, however, not centered on what we ought to be doing to get this under control.
(4) What you need to know about the novel coronavirus. COVID-19 Authorities, Contract Vehicles, and Initiatives. 13 Coronavirus myths busted by science. As the novel coronavirus continues to infect people around the world, news articles and social media posts about the outbreak continue to spread online. Faculty of Medicine. The coronavirus did not escape from a lab. Here's how we know.
Editor's note: On April 16, news came out that the U.S. government said it was investigating the possibility that the novel coronavirus may have somehow escaped from a lab, though experts still think the possibility that it was engineered is unlikely. New study finally reveals how long coronavirus survives on surfaces and in the air. Researches have looked at how long the novel coronavirus can survive on surfaces and in the air to better understand how to prevent infections.The virus that causes the COVID-19 disease can survive for up to three hours in the air, and up to three days on certain surfaces.The findings further support the idea that there are two simple things anyone can do to prevent infections: Social distancing and thorough hand-washing.Visit BGR’s homepage for more stories.
You’ve been hearing this advice everywhere for months now, and I’m about to repeat the same thing: wash your hands often, especially when you return back home — and be sure to use sanitizer if available while you’re out and about. Also, don’t EVER touch your face until you’ve washed your hands. It can be annoying when you have to make a conscious effort not to put your hands anywhere near your face, but it’s all for your own good. In other words, keep washing your hands and be conscious of not touching your face.
Development of Immunotherapy To Treat COVID-19 in Progress. Chloroquine for COVID-19: Cutting Through the Hype. Imperial College COVID19 NPI modelling 16 03 2020. 20200302 COVID19. Carl T. Bergstrom. Complexity Digest – Networking the complexity community since 1999. The coronavirus pandemic in five powerful charts. COVID-19: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures.